Thursday, December 30, 2010

Spinning Wheels and Tilting Windmills

I've been contributing to some other venues on this topic, so I thought I would add some paraphrased thoughts from that, here as well.

The WE [ISAF] are HERE [Afghanistan] and THEY [Al Qaeda] are THERE [not Afghanistan] aspect is absolutely essential in this conflict. If we are not allowed to pervasively enter Pakistan to engage Al Qaeda where they reside [at least in that region], then we are spinning our wheels in Afghanistan. Kinetically engaging transnational terror groups is akin to whack-a-mole as it is...if we consistently fail to even try to whack, then the entire process is an exercise in futility.

I desire as much if not more than the average person to engage and avenge Al Qaeda for the acts of 9/11. But reality has to trump vague idealism. We have to acknowledge that our actions both kinetic and non-kinetic, have distinct probabilities of creating more supporters of the Afghan insurgency, if not insurgents themselves. We have to realistically weigh the tangible threat posed by the various Taliban-esque [Quetta, Haqqani, HiG] groups with the desire to eliminate the entity that attacked us, meaning Al Qaeda. The media and two Administrations have diluted the discourse down to the point where the average American believes we're really taking it to the terrorists, when in fact we are mired fighting a sub-regional Islamic coalition that by and large merely wants their country back. Now, those Taliban elements are an anathema to our culture, but it appears to be a foregone conclusion by this point that we will be forced to either simply negotiate with them for a cessation of hostilities, or welcome them into a coalition government in Kabul. The ideological premise of merely withdrawing "without finishing the job" or some other such bumper sticker phrase, pales in comparison to again aligning with the people who were trying to kill you the previous day. [I say again, as we instituted the same paradigm in Iraq with the 1920 Brigade and other Sunni militia's].

Al Qaeda members have been targeted within the confines of Afghanistan over the last few years, but the number and scale of individual conflicts pales with those involving Taliban forces. Additionally, more Al Qaeda operatives have been engaged within Pakistan using cross-border deniable operations. But the number of AQ who have realistically been captured or [mostly] killed are not in any form of math, equal to the effort, resources and most importantly, lives that have been lost occupying Afghanistan. It's no stretch to state that the occupation, nor many of the tenets of a successful COIN campaign are not going so well.....after 10 years.

6 comments:

  1. "The media and two Administrations have diluted the discourse down to the point where the average American believes we're really taking it to the terrorists, when in fact we are mired fighting a sub-regional Islamic coalition that by and large merely wants their country back."

    For the record, I'm essentially disconnected from the military at this point in my life... and I was arguing Oh-My-God-Was-That-Three-Years-Ago? ...That we'd long since passed our window for doing anything particularly useful in Afghanistan. I seriously doubt that I count as an "average American", but I don't know anybody who seems especially convinced that we're really "taking it" to anybody. I suspect that the real problem on the civilian side is more a sort of apathy: the American public, by and large, isn't watching the costs at all, and has this vague notion that our goal is to get things settled down so we can pull out without leaving a huge mess behind us. Which isn't a bad goal on the face of it, if you aren't watching the costs.

    And I guess that's lack of awareness as much as apathy, now that I write it out.

    Also... when I say "we" missed our window, I'm not referring to the military. I'm referring to the civilian leadership - you know, the ones who were supposed to come in after the initial invasion, and fix the roads, build schools, improve living conditions...

    Take that with a grain of salt. I have no particular expertise in either political or military theory, so I'm not claiming that any special knowledge. That's just the impression I've gathered as a civilian.

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  2. Combating terrorism is an international police/law enforcement activity. The use of military force in a sovereign country creates terrorists and promotes terrorism.

    How many of us would support terrorism if a foreign military power occupied our country?

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  3. Mock - I agree that apathy is a large part of the equation, but you'd be surprised at the number of people who believe we are actively engaging Al Qaeda in Afghanistan or that there's essentially no difference between the various Taliban-esque factions and Al Qaeda.

    Jerry - you're correct in that people don't put any thought apparently into what actions they would take to oust an invader on our soil, but they'll call the Taliban barbaric cowards for the tactics they use in engaging ISAF [not that i am defending the core values of the Taliban mind you].

    But military force should not be ruled out in the fight against terror, it's not as if Interpol has the resources or expertise to track and eliminate terrors groups, generally. What does not work, is the military occupation of nations in the fight against terror groups.

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  4. "...you'd be surprised at the number of people who believe we are actively engaging Al Qaeda in Afghanistan or that there's essentially no difference between the various Taliban-esque factions and Al Qaeda."

    Yeah, I probably would. ::sigh:: Like I said, I'm pretty sure I don't count as a typical American.

    The idea that that attitude is really prevalent worries me. It seems like precisely the kind of sloppy thinking which can result in some truly disastrous mistakes. (And now I'm thinking of one or two random commenters who've dropped my blog, and who clearly can't - or don't - distinguish between Al Quaeda and my exceedingly pleasant Muslim co-workers. Meh. What a depressing thing to be reminded of.)

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  5. Ha! You little devil! You moved it over here!

    You have inspired me. One of my goals for 2011 is to catch up on my homework/reading. I've let it lapse lately.

    Looking forward to perusing your musings.

    K.

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  6. I post some of my submissions from B5 and Lightfighter...as well as the debate site I help moderate, America's Debate....here for family, friends and my awesome troup of readers.

    My reading takes a hit with my job, trying to finish my degree and being a Dad!

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