More Good War goodness

We are attempting to install a federal system into a tribal culture and the results have not been, and will not be pretty.

I still want to know, from ardent supporters of this conflict.....why the fight in Afghanistan [and the subsequent nation building] is paramount to our national security; and how [without the vague party line] 'victory' can be achieved?

The ever erudite Abu Muqawama literally nails it, though himself a COIN-dinista and not favoring withdrawal:

In the next few days, I will post some thoughts on how the United States and its allies might adjust their strategy for Afghanistan based on the outcome of the Afghan elections. But as I have written, this really is the worst-case scenario: a small margin of victory for Karzai amidst widespread allegations of fraud. Prior to the election, this was considered to be the worst outcome for Afghanistan, the legitimacy of the Afghan government, and the international community.

When people look back on the Afghanistan war, this might be the moment when historians will judge we should have cut the cord on the Afghan government. If we believe Generals McChrystal and Petraeus, and we believe a counterinsurgency campaign to represent our best chance of success in Afghanistan, then we have a big problem. Because if we believe what we ourselves have learned about counterinsurgency campaigns, we understand that we cannot be successful in one if the host nation government is seen as increasingly illegitimate -- and that's what the Karzai government is.
CNAS

The Good War?

Given the resurgent debate in the media, I've got plenty of thoughts about our policy in Afghanistan....

Foremost, nobody can define victory. Politicians, pundits and armchair commandos can make sweeping generalizations about the desired endstate, but nobody can outline the barest of steps needed to attain it. We played into Al Qaeda's hand in 2001. AQ is a cell based organization that can operate in nearly any nation, as they have. AQ purposely and publicly staged it's 'Headquarters' in Afghanistan during the planning of 9/11, based on the assumption that the US would retaliate militarily after the attacks. This retaliation would be conventional and enduring, as it's our modus operandi. The Taliban regime was expendable to AQ in the broader pursuit of it's goals; and our involvement in Afghanistan has brought forth dynamics that were on AQ's wishlist, but probably never dreamed possible.

Policy makers can't define what metrics are suitable for defining victory. Is it a democratic government? Not with the massive vote fraud in the recent election. The US however, will continue to support Karzai....to the detriment of many Afghan citizens.

Is it killing the enemy? This is the worst metric to use in a COIN environment. There is virtually no way to compete with what are called "$50 Taliban", Afghan civilians who will willingly aid Taliban, AQ and other insurgent groups for profit....as has been their way for centuries.

Is it 'winning the hearts and minds'? In a grand scheme yes; but only at the platoon level are we truly understanding the tribal dynamics in a given area, and unfortunately those dynamics are completely different the next valley over. Relentlessly killing Afghan civilians in punitive airstrikes is not helping matters either. In any COIN environment, and in this one in particular, the enemy has the decisive upper hand in information operations; they control the message because we and the Karzai Government are outsiders to nearly everyone outside of Kabul.

As NYT journalist Dexter Filkins writes:

The situation on the battlefield is difficult on its own. But it is, of course, inevitably bound up with the political stalemate in Kabul. As American commanders and diplomats have said repeatedly here, no amount of troops can substitute for a lack of political consensus among ordinary Afghans.

There is no strategic rationale for continuing the war in Afghanistan. The realities of continuing the fight have far more to do with domestic politics here in the US than strategic ramifications in the fight against AQ. Terror groups are not going to be the downfall of this nation...this nations self-detrimental actions will be. There is no strategic focus and no definable endstate. It would take at least as many years and more money than we've spent to date to prop up a shaky pseudo-democracy that will surely fail when we leave, due to the cultural and social desires of the Afghan people, and the fact that an Afghan military strong enough to secure the patchwork nation, cannot ever be supported by the Afghan economy.

These are very real issues that are being swept aside in the 'good war' defense of the supporters of this perpetual war. For some good analytical dialogue about COIN and Afghanistan, I recommend Abu Muqawama.

Duck Season

Make no mistake...I am a Duck fan. I will always be a Duck fan.

But Thursday night I was disgusted and embarassed. Eagerly anticipating the start of the 2009-2010 College Football season with my team playing on the Smurf Turf at Boise State...I was treated to a team that couldn't beat my high school squad. Lethargic, unmotivated and incoherent....the University of Oregon resembled turkeys rather than ducks.

Where was the ground game? Where was Masoli? The Boise State QB couldn't miss when he drilled the ball to his receiver; Oregon several times almost couldn't get the requisite number of players on the field. If not for many egregious missteps on behalf of the Bronco's, this could have been an utter blowout.

Blount torpedoed his NFL career. Good. He wrote checks with his mouth that his ass couldn't cash...and then threw a tantrum after playing like a community college athlete.

I will be there for the Ducks this season....but will they be there for me?

Today's Moment of Zen

The Perfidy of Punditry

Pundits really have no responsibility to truth and integrity any more than 'news' channels have a responsibility to report actual news. However, media pundits by and large, are sensationalists. They are not the bright lights of their respective parties [and make no mistake, they are accountable to their party]; the bright lights who could actually contribute to discussions of national importance are seldom, if ever invited to appear with the pundits.

Today's pundits represent the lowest common denominator appealing to the lowest common denominator. Their marching orders are to stir up [or contrive] controversy for the sake of ratings......just as 'news' channels contrive and manufacture controversy for higher ratings and higher profits......all without changing the comfortable political paradigm that all parties are complicit in retaining.

When these media pundits resort to tabloid drama, baseless political labeling and comparisons to tyrants.......it is a bonfire to all intelligent Americans that they have admitted to themselves that their argument is unconvincing on it's merits, therefore, they're only recourse is to appeal to the idiocrats.

Sadly, this phenomena is becoming more popular. Americans are uniformly becoming less astute, and led by the nose with the prevalent buzz words and scripts. The scholars and intellectuals of our time are being relegated to obscure academic journals and wonk blogs, while the airwaves are filled with people who couldn't stand their ground in an honest debate, or when they do not control the arena and it's format.

Slack Jawed Stupitidy.....

If the "Washington" mindset is so terrible, and "Big Government" is so detrimental........why do so many mouth breathing oxygen thieves keep sending "Big Government, Washington Mindset" politicians to run our country?

Break the cycle.....vote in the certified kook on every voting list. That guy who runs a write-in campaign and believes that the UN has black helicopters flying around and that pets should be given civil rights.

It can't get any worse.......

New Quiz Show........No Wat I'm Sayin?

So you give each contestant a series of phrases taken from mental hospitals and rap videos.

They answer either "Urban" or "Retard"

Winner gets a new 'Grill'......

The Declaration of Independence

IN CONGRESS, JULY 4, 1776

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America

When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. - That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, - That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. - Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their Public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected, whereby the Legislative Powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary Powers.

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil Power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefit of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences:

For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies

For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation, and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & Perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our British brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these united Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States, that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. - And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor.

- John Hancock
New Hampshire:
Josiah Bartlett, William Whipple, Matthew Thornton
Massachusetts:
John Hancock, Samuel Adams, John Adams, Robert Treat Paine, Elbridge Gerry
Rhode Island:
Stephen Hopkins, William Ellery
Connecticut:
Roger Sherman, Samuel Huntington, William Williams, Oliver Wolcott
New York:
William Floyd, Philip Livingston, Francis Lewis, Lewis Morris
New Jersey:
Richard Stockton, John Witherspoon, Francis Hopkinson, John Hart, Abraham Clark
Pennsylvania:
Robert Morris, Benjamin Rush, Benjamin Franklin, John Morton, George Clymer, James Smith, George Taylor, James Wilson, George Ross
Delaware:
Caesar Rodney, George Read, Thomas McKean
Maryland:
Samuel Chase, William Paca, Thomas Stone, Charles Carroll of Carrollton
Virginia:
George Wythe, Richard Henry Lee, Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Harrison, Thomas Nelson, Jr., Francis Lightfoot Lee, Carter Braxton
North Carolina:
William Hooper, Joseph Hewes, John Penn
South Carolina:
Edward Rutledge, Thomas Heyward, Jr., Thomas Lynch, Jr., Arthur Middleton
Georgia:
Button Gwinnett, Lyman Hall, George Walton

Now......think about our grievances against the King of England in 1776 and compare them to how our Federal Government treats the citizenry today. Are we truly free, or do we simply serve another master?

Tired of city life? Time to move to the countryside.....

Since Afghanistan has been in the headlines recently with a large uptick in violence, ineffectual governance, and an increase in US forces, the occupation of Iraq hasn't gotten much airtime in our media. Although sectarian violence had decreased, it's now again surging, especially in Mosul and Baghdad.

On 30 June, all US combat formations are to be evicted from Iraqi cities, theoretically leaving only Advisors and Trainers. However, in at least one instance that I know to be true, the city limits of Baghdad were redrawn to place FOB Falcon outside rather than it's previous position in the city. Further, the mission of Advising and Training are undertaken by Combat Arms Divisions and Brigades, thus making a distinction of combat forces and trainers semantic in nature.

On the political front, the Kurds are claiming Baghdad governance of oil facilities and products to be unconstitutional, and Sunni groups are charging Prime Minister Maliki with using his Iraqi Army Special Forces as 'death squads' to eliminate perceived and possible Sahwa opposition to his regime.

A few days ago, PM Maliki has made controversial statements concerning his 'allies' and the occupation.

Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki has taken to calling the withdrawal of American combat troops from Iraq’s cities by next Tuesday a “great victory,” a repulsion of foreign occupiers he compares to the rebellion against British troops in 1920.

They have closed outposts — even in Baghdad and still-troubled Mosul in the north — that they had initially lobbied the Iraqis to keep open, having concluded, the officials said, that pressing the case would be counterproductive given the political significance that Mr. Maliki had given the deadline.

The day itself has been declared a national holiday, though it is not yet clear whether Iraq will hold the “feast and festivals” he recently promised.

American and Iraqi officials acknowledge the risks — to Mr. Maliki’s political position and to Iraqis’ safety.

NYT

Iraq’s civilian leaders held a meeting on Thursday with the 300 top Iraqi military commanders from around the country to discuss the withdrawal of American forces from cities by the June 30 deadline, and scarcely mentioned the United States.

“Foreign forces have to withdraw from the cities totally,” said Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki. “This is a victory that should be celebrated in feasts and festivals.”

It was the first time so many commanders had gathered in Baghdad to meet Mr. Maliki. Iraqi and foreign reporters were invited, but when a senior American military officer arrived, a major general from Mr. Maliki’s Office of the Commander in Chief told him to leave. “We apologize to you, but this is an Iraqi meeting and you’re not invited,” the general said. Neither officer would give his name.

NYT

Are the Iraqi leaders displaying a dangerous overconfidence in their ability to maintain security and governance after US forces leave the cities in a week, and [theoretically] completely in 2011? I believe so. Granted, some of Maliki's comments can be chalked up to playing to Iraqi populism......portraying himself as the post-Saddam leader to rid the country of foreign occupation. However, it's well known through Special Inspector General Reports and other sources that the Iraqi Army and police forces (IP/NP) simply do not possess the logistic system to be self sustaining, and do not maintain a corps of professionalism within their officer and NCO ranks to sustain a viable, non-sectarian and corruption free force.

As I alluded to above, boundary delineations have played semantic games with the order to disengage from the cities, and combat formations will stay put in Mosul for the time being. That there has been a rise in violence coinciding with this event is not a surprise in itself, but it does highlight the tenuous grip the Iraqi Security Forces have in their own nation....where they indeed have a grip at all.

Unfortunately, it is the American forces that will now find themselves in the most uncomfortable position. US units are now being shifted to already overcrowded smaller FOB's outside of the city, where a greater concentration and [in some cases] less force protection, will place them at greater risk when not conducting missions. Combat missions themselves provides an equally daunting outlook. There really isn't much of a framework in place from when US forces can enter the cities, where they can go, under who's tactical command they will operate under and what legal jurisdiction they will have in capturing, detaining and interrogating suspect insurgent; what land can be temporarily occupied, for what purposes and for what duration. Judging from my experience with and assessment of the Iraqi command structure.....I simply envision a call for help, and US forces riding to the sound of the guns.....uncoordinated, uncommitted and unprepared.

I'm hopeful, but not terribly optimistic that concessions and compromise are likely between Shia, Sunni and Kurd. Iraq is still very much a powder keg. There are so many political dimensions that were meant to be solved or facilitated by the surge, that they render the security success that did occur, nearly meaningless. There is still no oil sharing agreement and democratic delineation of governance in the Kurdish region; the Kurds still fielding a very viable Peshmerga militia. The has been lip service and foot dragging at the incorporation of the Sunni 'Sons of Iraq' fighters into the Iraqi Security Forces, as well as relief and reparation for the thousands of Sunni families forcibly evicted and cleansed from their neighborhoods....leaving a well armed and impatient [and formerly insurgent] minority. And there are still very dangerous power struggles occurring within the Shia community between Maliki and the Dawa/Badr coalition and al-Hakim's ISCI. Remember the political discourse favored by these entities does not consist of "I disagree with the distinguished Gentleman from Kirkuk" it consists of militia warfare. This is all assuming that the weight of rampant corruption in the Maliki government doesn't yield yet another course, that of combustible anarchy.

Iraq moved from a dismal number 5 spot on the Failed States Index, to a slightly less dismal number 6 spot this year.

The repair needed cannot come from without, it must be internal. Maybe that means a few more years of civil war, maybe it means another [hopefully more benign] dictator. This may already be occurring:

Although Iraq's parliamentary elections are not until January, the campaign has begun, and Maliki has shown a determination to fight with a tenacity and ruthlessness borrowed from the handbook of Iraq's last strongman, Saddam Hussein. From Diyala, where men under Maliki's command have arrested and threatened to detain a host of his rivals, to Basra, where security forces have swept up scores of his opponents since January, the message is: cooperate or risk his wrath.

Although Iraq's sectarian war has largely ended, and the Sunnis feel they lost, another struggle for power, perhaps no less perilous, has begun in earnest. Maliki has resorted to a more traditional notion of politics in which violence is simply another form of leverage. His goal is simple -- to ensure he emerges as prime minister again after the vote.
WaPo

Nobody has a very good answer for this because it's all speculation.

We cannot maintain the footprint we currently have in Iraq -and- ramp up a suitable offensive strategy in Afghanistan. It isn't fair to our national security or to our military to maintain a one foot in - one foot our policy in Iraq. All we're left doing is the Hokey Pokey....with casualties. It's far past time to pull the plug.

Trauma....

Went to a Wal-Mart.....in West Virginia today. It's amazing when you can step into the gene pool, and not even get your feet wet. I will bear those mental scars for some time to come.