Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts

Sunday, December 27, 2009

While we're on the subject of Iran

Let's clear up a little myth - "wiping Israel off of the map".

The statement has been bandied about like a war cry by Zionists and US hardliners alike. Even if the Iranian President [who doesn't really wield much power in Tehran] said those exact words....is that justification for military action? Foreign policy mimics playground taunting and retaliation?

My recent comment piece explaining how Iran's president was badly misquoted when he allegedly called for Israel to be "wiped off the map" has caused a welcome little storm. The phrase has been seized on by western and Israeli hawks to re-double suspicions of the Iranian government's intentions, so it is important to get the truth of what he really said.

I took my translation - "the regime occupying Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time" - from the indefatigable Professor Juan Cole's website where it has been for several weeks.

But it seems to be mainly thanks to the Guardian giving it prominence that the New York Times, which was one of the first papers to misquote Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, came out on Sunday with a defensive piece attempting to justify its reporter's original "wiped off the map" translation. (By the way, for Farsi speakers the original version is available here.)

The New York Times goes on: "The second translation issue concerns the word 'map'. Khomeini's words were abstract: 'Sahneh roozgar.' Sahneh means scene or stage, and roozgar means time. The phrase was widely interpreted as 'map', and for years, no one objected. In October, when Mr Ahmadinejad quoted Khomeini, he actually misquoted him, saying not 'Sahneh roozgar' but 'Safheh roozgar', meaning pages of time or history. No one noticed the change, and news agencies used the word 'map' again."

This, in my view, is the crucial point and I'm glad the NYT accepts that the word "map" was not used by Ahmadinejad. (By the way, the Wikipedia entry on the controversy gets the NYT wrong, claiming falsely that Ethan Bronner "concluded that Ahmadinejad had in fact said that Israel was to be wiped off the map".)

If the Iranian president made a mistake and used "safheh" rather than "sahneh", that is of little moment. A native English speaker could equally confuse "stage of history" with "page of history". The significant issue is that both phrases refer to time rather than place. As I wrote in my original post, the Iranian president was expressing a vague wish for the future. He was not threatening an Iranian-initiated war to remove Israeli control over Jerusalem.

Two other well-established translation sources confirm that Ahmadinejad was referring to time, not place. The version of the October 26 2005 speech put out by the Middle East Media Research Institute, based on the Farsi text released by the official Iranian Students News Agency, says: "This regime that is occupying Qods [Jerusalem] must be eliminated from the pages of history." (NB: not "wiped". I accept that "eliminated" is almost the same, indeed some might argue it is more sinister than "wiped", though it is a bit more of a mouthful if you are trying to find four catchy and easily memorable words with which to incite anger against Iran.)

MEMRI (its text of the speech is available here) is headed by a former Isareli military intelligence officer and has sometimes been attacked for alleged distortion of Farsi and Arabic quotations for the benefit of Israeli foreign policy. On this occasion they supported the doveish view of what Ahmadinejad said.

Finally we come to the BBC monitoring service which every day puts out hundreds of highly respected English translations of broadcasts from all round the globe to their subscribers - mainly governments, intelligence services, thinktanks and other specialists. I approached them this week about the controversy and a spokesperson for the monitoring service's marketing unit, who did not want his name used, told me their original version of the Ahmadinejad quote was "eliminated from the map of the world".

A very last point. The fact that he compared his desired option - the elimination of "the regime occupying Jerusalem" - with the fall of the Shah's regime in Iran makes it crystal clear that he is talking about regime change, not the end of Israel. As a schoolboy opponent of the Shah in the 1970's he surely did not favour Iran's removal from the page of time. He just wanted the Shah out.

Let me give the last word to Juan Cole, with whom I began. "I am entirely aware that Ahmadinejad is hostile to Israel. The question is whether his intentions and capabilities would lead to a military attack, and whether therefore pre-emptive warfare is prescribed. I am saying no, and the boring philology is part of the reason for the no."


Read the rest

Saturday, December 26, 2009

More on Iran......as the war drum continues to beat

Since I'm in favor of informed decision making.......Information that I'm still trying to ascertain is:

- Is safeguard non-compliance a violation of the NPT? The academic jury appears to still be out on this....at least until the Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference in May 2010, where one would think the issue would be raised and decided.

- What is the legal presumption to take military action against Iran in the event they acquire a working weapon? There doesn't appear to be one, yet a sizable number of people agree that that shouldn't stop us from acting unilaterally.

- Are the second and third order effects of such a strike worth the cost compared to allowing Iran to maintain nuclear weaponry unmolested? I believe a more fruitful case could have been made for disallowing Pakistan to gain such a capability, with it's homegrown extremist base and shaky central government.

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

What to do with Iran.....

The discussion continues to revolve around sanctions or air strikes, to halt Iran's march towards acquiring nuclear weaponry.

A problem with using air strikes to halt Iran's nuclear program is that would most certainly have the opposite effect, encouraging Iran to redouble it's efforts in acquiring a WMD arsenal.

Further, of the 18 or so known sites, many are located near or in urban and historical areas. A strike would have to rely on a margin of overkill to be assured of effectiveness....thereby potentially causing thousands of civilian casualties. A strike conducted or condoned by the US would only serve to further damage our wounded standing among civilized nations, and further incite those who already believe that we are waging a war [or crusade] against Muslims. This of course would guarantee second and third order effects on our operations in Iraq and Afghanistan...to name but two.

Only a policy of acknowledging Iran's role as a regional power, encouraging foreign investment, re-establishing diplomatic relations and unfreezing Iranian assets....will succeed in convincing them to halt their nuclear ambitions. This of course must be met with verifiable suspension of the enrichment of uranium and research into nuclear weaponry, with stringent inspections; and the halting of any and all support of extremist groups. While this may simply seem to the flag waving chest beaters as surrender....to our knowledge, this type of diplomacy hasn't been offered before.

Convince Iran that a deal such as this is in their best interest, as opposed to threats, sanctions and bluster. Iran maintains suitable conditions for transforming into a democratic state in the near term....but a military strike would most certainly stall or reverse that.